Wednesday 20 May 2020

Should Johnson just be following the science?

Everyone wants to know if Johnson's government really has been 'following the science' on Covid-19.
To me, this is far too simplistic, bordering on unintelligent, way to look at it.
Surely it goes like this:
Early on when we don't know enough about it, you have to err on the side of caution. That means, in effect, assuming that it will be very medically bad and you don't want to have the NHS overwhelmed.

You have two choices then; go for herd immunity (no official lockdown, just advice), or proper lockdown.
The Government was leaning toward the former but got spooked at the level of criticsm for appearing cavalier &/or 'uncaring', so changed to a lockdown strategy.
At this stage it was essentially a uni-dimensional (medical/scientific risk) decision making process. They were getting conflicting advice as to which option was best medically, but had to make a choice.
They chose to play it ultra-safe and go for lockdown.
I don't blame them, even if with hindsight it may prove not have been the optimal way to go.
Then as time goes by and more data comes in, you start to know with some degree of certainty which groups are most affected by the virus and how it spreads and how to minimise the spread in the best ways. You're ramping up tests and PPE from a very low base and are very wary of changing the lockdwon policy too early in case the progress made reverses creatng even more howls of criticism.

You may start to think that some of your earlier decisons were, with hindsight, not the best, but you have to continue from where you are; you can't put the clock back overnight with everyone worried sick and in lockdown.
But 8 weeks on, we are at (if not past) the point where the decisions have to be genuinely multi-dimensional.
Not just looking at the medical/scientific risk but at the economic, social, educational and psychological risks as well.
These multi-dimensional decisions are the toughest to make because some risks will conflict with each other and there will always be groups of people who don't like what you decide to do.

Putting aside those who are just out to criticize this Government come what may, (and sadly there are quite a lot of those), this will be because they want their particular risk prioritised above all the others.
The obvious example at the moment is the Teachers Unions.
I'm feeling charitable so I'll say that they are simply wanting it to be a uni-dimensional (medical/scientific risk) decision and there's no attempt to take advantage of this situation to make life hard for a Tory government - (aren't I kind?!)

But we have to move passed the uni-dimensional way of thinking now, and think longer term.
Let's remember that Johnson was pressed repeatedly for a road-map and criticised for not providing one. When he provides one, all the people who feel their group or their particular main risk hasn't been duly prioritised loudly complain. Who would have guessed?

So, bearing in mind there will be a vociferous set of people who disagree whatever he does, I hope Johnson just does what his instincts tell him in a multi-dimensional risk scenario, and we'll see what happens.

One thing's for sure, it's long past only being a medical/scientific risk that has to inform Government decisions now!

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