Thursday 14 May 2020

We are between a rock and a hard place!




This is an unprecedented situation in this country in my lifetime and it caught almost every European country off-guard. 
If that were not so, why was the EU so slow to come to the aid of Italy & Spain? Why did each country feel it had to do its own thing? 
And of course, if all countries do their own thing, some will do better than others, but it’s largely luck, not some special insight. 
And certainly, the cosying-up of the World Health Organisation to China both delayed the disclosure and down-played the seriousness of this situation until it was too late.


We also need to be honest and say that our ‘experts’, for example Neil Ferguson, upon whose modelling much early advice & policy was determined, are not quite as expert as we might have supposed or wished.


This is NOT to accuse anyone in the ‘expert community’ advising the Government of bad faith; rather, sometimes you only realise that there are deficiencies in your thinking, knowledge and planning when a real crisis arises.

You can do as much modelling as you like; as many table-top simulations as you like; only when a critical issue arises that needs drastic action in the real world do you see where the gaps in your knowledge, models and plans really are.

The idea that anyone, scientists, modellers or politicians should, or even can, have the all-encompassing wisdom and foresight to predict and then prepare perfectly for any and every eventuality is, to put it mildly, unreasonable.


Until now, the Government has prioritised the medical side over the economic side. But because the infection fatality rate is looking like being 1% or less, we are now at, or fast approaching, the cross-over point where problems caused by a poor economy are being seen as likely to outweigh the immediate issue of deaths from the virus itself.  


This is a Godsend for unreasonable ideologues who are automatically opposed to this Government, for two reasons.


Firstly, with the aid of hindsight, all kinds of things should have been done better, sooner, later, faster, to a greater extent, to a lesser extent etc etc.


Secondly, and quite literally, whatever the Government does from here, it will be possible to criticise it, and with some degree of validity.



Why? 


Because our individual, family, financial & employment circumstances vary so widely that a fair proportion of the population will not like the impact that any Government decision now has on their lives.



Some want the full lockdown to be extended; some want it fully removed now; some want it eased for one particular part of the economy; some for another; some are enjoying working from home; others very much not; some are happy being paid 80% of their wage without actually working; others have or are likely to lose their jobs with all the worry that brings; some have plenty of income/savings; others have very little; some have elderly relatives who have died or they are worried about; others have or have relatives with underlying medical conditions making them vulnerable; some literally know no-one who has died from this and don’t see what the fuss is all about etc etc.



In a situation like this, wherein you have no really good options; where the best you can do is to try and choose the least bad option, keeping everyone or even 75% of people content is quite literally impossible.



As time goes on, rather than looking at the big picture with all its complexity, and taking a ‘we’re all in this together’ attitude, quite naturally, we start looking mainly at our own individual circumstances; and anything but perfection for us personally causes us to feel neglected or let down, and so we start carping and criticising.



It’s human nature I’m afraid.



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